News & Insights

Here you’ll find our thinking and helpful insights on the latest developments in domestic and global markets.

Investment and Economic Update July 2022

The month of July saw financial markets roar back to life following a terrible June and end of the financial year. However, the outlook for global growth continues to be challenged. Much depends on whether inflation can be brought to heel and if not, to what extent central bankers will go to bring it under control without breaking the economy in the process.

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Investment and Economic Update - FY2021/2022 in Review

FY2021/2022 was an extraordinary 12 months from both an economic and financial market perspective. While the six month period ending the calendar year 2021 showed positive signs, the second half of the financial year 2021/22 was arguably one of the worst periods we have experienced in many years for investors.

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Investment and Economic Update May 2022

The performance of global financial markets showed some improvement in May, with global equities, US equities, and emerging markets all generating small positive returns.

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Global Market Wrap - April 2022

Global equities fell close to 9% in April and 13% YTD. The topic of inflation continues to dominate headlines, and while there was some indication that it had started to peak, the combination of the sustained war in Ukraine and China’s lockdowns are starting to create concerns that inflation might be "stickier" and run longer than expected.

This month, more “defensive” sectors performed well, with consumer staples and utilities among some of the best performing sectors.

Inflation and the risk of recession drove the markets in April, and that will continue to be the focus for investors going forward.

Watch time: 4:35mins

Investment and Economic Update April 2022

Australia’s headline inflation rate surged from 3.5% to a 10-year high of 5.1%. In the face of overwhelming evidence that inflation is not only accelerating but wage growth is also finally picking up pace, the Reserve Bank belatedly increased the cash rate by 25 basis points to 35 basis points, the first increase in more than a decade.

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Global Equities Update - March 2022

It has been a weaker start to 2022, with markets still down around 5% YTD. Astonishingly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, markets have risen around 4%.

It has now been two years since the original COVID market sell-off in March 2020. Markets are up 90% from the lows, and are also up around 30% versus the pre-COVID elevated market levels. Therefore, it’s been an exceptionally good period for markets.

Going forward, it’s all eyes on inflation and the path of central banks. In the coming weeks, reports from the US earning season will be released which will provide antidotes around how inflation and margin pressures are beginning to impact companies.

Investment and Economic Update March 2022

As the war in Ukraine continues to unfold, the conflict is having a marked effect on the outlook for global economic growth, energy supply (especially in Europe), energy prices and of course, inflation. This has created an incredibly challenging environment for central banks to manage.

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Global Equities Update – February 2022

In February, the Global Equities Market initially focused on the continuing theme of rising inflation and interest rates. However, at the end of the month this was overshadowed by Russia’s appalling invasion of Ukraine. For investors, this meant the Global Equity Index declined 2.5%. As was to be expected, the steepest decline was felt in Russia, as well as in surrounding countries.

Watch time: 4.55mins

Investment and Economic Update February 2022

Russia’s deplorable invasion of the Ukraine in late February stole the headlines this month, fuelling a widespread pull back in global share markets. The fog of war contributed to an overriding sense of unease and uncertainty, exacerbating an already volatile macroeconomic backdrop still trying to come to grips with high inflation and the prospect that central banks will accelerate quantitative tightening.

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Investment and Economic Update January 2022

It was a poor start to the year for financial markets, with all major financial assets posting negative returns in January. Cash and commodities were the only asset classes to be spared as markets developed a nosebleed after reaching dizzy heights in 2021.

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Global Equities Update – January 2022

January was a wild ride for investors prompted by a shift in expectations for future rate hikes. Early in the month, the US Fed Reserve confirmed rate rises much sooner and much higher than the market had originally anticipated. The expectation is now for 4-5 rate hikes in 2022, rather than the 1-2 rate hikes originally forecasted.

Looking ahead, there are still a number of challenges for markets - sustained, persisting inflation, central banks increasing interest rates, the broad liquidity environment moving lower, as well as some COVID distortions beginning to normalise. Considering all these factors, the outlook still remains optimistic for 2022.

Watch time: 4.20mins

Investment and Economic Update – 2021 Year in Review

The global economy continued to recover throughout 2021 courtesy of an ultra-low interest rate environment and a slow but steady vaccination roll out.

There are several known risks on the horizon, including a persistent pandemic and the prospect of higher for longer inflation, but we are cautiously optimistic about the prospects for the year ahead. Monetary policy is still highly accommodative, savings rates are high, corporate balance sheets are strong, and confidence is returning. Lower returns and higher volatility however will be features of the year ahead.

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Global Equities Update - December 2021

November was a weaker month for global equities, marking the second negative month since this rally began in early 2020. Encouragingly, if there is no steep sell off or a further decline in December, the quarter should be positive – marking the seventh consecutive quarter that global equities have advanced since March 2020.

The month was very eventful with a number of key themes: a surge of COVID cases in Europe and subsequently new lockdowns and restrictions announced, Jerome Powell re-nominated as the Chair of the US Federal Reserve, and the annual rate of inflation in the US hitting 6.2% – the highest increase since 1990.

Watch time: 2:40mins

Investment and Economic Update November 2021

Financial markets contracted in the final days of the month after the discovery of the new COVID-19 variant Omicron, reached Australian shores. The volatility index shot higher as market fears took hold, resulting in intense selling pressure of risk assets in the final days of the month both in Australia and overseas.

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Investment and Economic Update October 2021

Throughout the month, further evidence surfaced suggesting that Australia’s economic recovery is on track and is quickly gaining momentum. Investor and consumer confidence continued to rise, buoyed by promising vaccine statistics, and a gradual easing of lockdown restrictions.

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Global Equities Update – October 2021

Looking back on global equities in September, the month certainly lived up to its reputation of historically being a weaker month for global markets. The markets sold off a little more than 4% - breaking a seven month winning streak for global equities.

All sectors fell during the month, except for energy. This was due to a very strong supply and demand mismatch. This resulted in the energy sector rising almost 10%.

The US Fed Reserve announced that it would begin tapering. Other countries around the world, including Australia, also announced that they would be forecasting or starting to reduce their bond purchasing programs.

The market was focused on China in September - a market that materially has underperformed in 2021. The headlines were fixated on Evergrande, China’s third largest property developer, and whether it could meet its interest payments on its outstanding loans.

Watch time: 4:29 mins

Investment and Economic Update September 2021

The big news for markets in September was the announcement by the Fed that their tapering program would begin around the end of the year. This pushed real yields higher by around 20bps and sent the US 10-year government bond yield towards 1.50%. Here in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia was a little more dovish due to the continued impact from lockdowns, stating they would delay the review of the current bond purchase program until their February 1 2022 meeting. As a result, our 10-year bond yields rose, but at a slower pace than the US, finishing the month up 14bps.

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Global Equities Update – September 2021

Recapping the month in global markets, global equities rose 2.5% in August. This is now the seventh consecutive month that global equities have risen.

The three key market themes to watch this month are: the US Federal Reserve tapering, the spike in COVID cases and vaccine efficacy fading over time, as well as China and its slowing economy.

Looking ahead, investors are hoping the current “Goldilocks” situation - the economy is not too hot or too cold but just right – continues.

Watch time: 3:42 mins

Economic Snapshot August 2021

August saw more of the same themes and risks that global financial markets had focused on in July. COVID-19 continued to spread around the world, leading to further slowing of economic activity, disruptions to global supply chains, and pockets of inflationary pressures.

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Global Equites Update – August 2021

For the sixth consecutive month, global equities were up in July, rising 0.7% and extending the broad rally witnessed over the past few months.

The most noteworthy news for July was the stringent new regulations issued by the Chinese government for the private education industry. The new rules included banning companies from profiting from teaching core subjects offered in the state schooling system or running classes on weekends. The change resulted in a massive fall in the shares of Chinese private education companies, with some falling as much as 80% in a few trading days. This regulatory crackdown now has investors questioning what other sectors might be next.

Looking forward, the focus turns towards the US earnings season, with companies reporting their current business trends, as well as earnings and profits. This provides a good gauge as to which businesses will continue to grow post COVID tailwinds, as well as providing insights into the various pressures currently being faced by businesses.

Watch time: 4.47 min

Economic Snapshot July 2021

July saw markets continue to worry about the global growth profile. Some key readings of economic activity in June were lower than in previous months, leading markets to revisit the “peak growth theme”. Potential disruption from the accelerating COVID-19 waves around the world added to these concerns. This narrative outweighed some stronger than expected inflation figures.

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Global Equities Update – July 2021

In June, we saw global equities up 1.5%. This was the fifth consecutive month that shares have risen in value globally. Year to date, markets have risen 12.5%, and are 90% higher than the lows witnessed in March 2020. The markets remain focused on inflation, interest rates and also on the speed of the global economy reopening with the Delta variant of COVID-19 bringing uncertainty.

Watch time: 4:51 mins

Economic Snapshot June 2021 – Year in Review

FY2020/21 was a dramatic year that started with serious concerns about public health and the global economy and finished on an optimistic note, delivering historic gains in equity markets along the way. Although COVID-19 continued to cause problems in many countries through the year, progress on developing and distributing vaccines helped mitigate concerns about the impact of further lockdowns. Most importantly, however, the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus applied across the world raised expectations of economic recovery.

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Arrive invests in law and advisory firm EMT Partners

Arrive Wealth Management is pleased to announce its strategic investment in EMT Partners, a specialist Entertainment, Media, Sport and Technology law and advisory firm.

Our relationship with EMT Partners aligns with our vision to connect with innovative businesses across new sectors, creating access to exciting global investment opportunities for our clients.

EMT Partners specialises in Entertainment, Media, Sport and Technology advice, through EMT Lawyers and EMT Advisory. EMT Partners are principal investors in the sectors and understand the critical importance of delivering fast, accurate and strategic solutions to their clients.

Global Equities Update – June 2021

In May, the global equities market was higher again, up 1.6% and up 11% for 2021. The market continues to be focused on inflation, with current debate as to whether it will be enduring or transitory. While it is difficult to predict, T. Rowe Price Portfolio Specialist Sam Ruiz, acknowledges that there will be a lot of supply shocks as the world returns to normal and that the pathway remains uncertain.

Watch time: 5:05 mins

Economic Snapshot May 2021

May was a month of consolidation for most asset classes. Global investors have been grappling with the trade-off between the benefits of stronger global growth for corporate profits and the potential cost to bonds from higher inflation that might flow from the stronger growth.

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Global Equities Update – May 2021

Reflecting on the previous month, markets performed well again in April – up 4% for the month and 9% YTD. The market is currently focused on those stocks that had tailwinds from COVID – which ones will accelerate and which will decelerate e.g. Netflix. Looking forward, a number of uncertainties still remain as we see a resurgence of the virus in parts of the world and what that means for positioning in developed vs. emerging markets. Will we actually see a synchronised global recovery?

Watch time: 3:26 mins

Global Equities Update – April 2021

T. Rowe Price Portfolio Specialist Sam Ruiz shares with us his views on the market this month and explores the current key themes: inflation, interest rates and predicted US growth.

Watch time: 3:18 mins

Economic Snapshot April 2021

April saw positive returns across the board for financial markets. Equities and commodities performed especially well. Bond markets steadied in April, after their fears in previous months about the risk of inflation stemming from the robust pace of economic recovery. Data showing softer than expected March quarter inflation in Australia helped the local bond market. The better performance of the bond markets provided a good backdrop for equity markets in April. Bond-sensitive equities such as REITs did well, while the broader US equity market was supported by a solid company earnings reporting season. The US equity market reached new highs, but the Japanese market declined as a renewed COVID-19 wave saw the reimposition of lockdowns. The emerging equity markets index rallied, despite the weakness of the Indian equity market which was also caused by COVID-19 developments there.

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Economic Snapshot March 2021

March saw further good news about the pace of global economic recovery, with the OECD revising up its forecasts for global growth, and strong employment and growth figures reported in both Australia and the US. Financial markets received the better news on growth with mixed feelings. Their concern is that the US economy will start to overheat sooner than expected, leading to higher inflation and tighter monetary policy.

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Global Equities Update - March 2021

T. Rowe Price Portfolio Specialist Sam Ruiz shares with us his current views on the market, and explores the three themes in the market at the moment: earnings, the virus and interest rates.

Watch time: 3:16 mins

Market Watch February 2021

Three major themes to watch this month: inflation, currency, and the speed and success of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout.

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Economic Snapshot February 2021

February was a re-run of January in that markets started on a strong note, with equities posting very good gains in the first half of the month, only for conditions to reverse later in the month. However, while online trading caused the volatility in January, it was the bond market that caused the trouble in February.

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Economic Snapshot January 2021

January saw further improvement in the Australian economy, with higher employment and stronger business conditions and consumer confidence. Inflation rose only modestly in the December quarter to around1% in annual terms. This is well below there serve Bank’s 2-3% target range. Economic activity in the US and Europe is showing the impact of new lockdowns to curb the spread of the latest strains of COVID-19. There are fears of a double-dip recession in Europe.

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Economic Snapshot December YIR 2020

2020 began off the back of a big global equity rally, with a few geo-political concerns, but no inkling of the havoc that COVID-19 was about to wreak on the world. As the March quarter unfolded, with lockdowns following the virus from one country to another, risk assets succahs equities and the A$ fell sharply as expectations of recession spiked. At the sometime, a shortage of US$ liquidity pushed financial markets close to freezing up. Central banks and governments stepped in with massive liquidity and spending packages. Interest rates were cuts to historic lows.

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Economic Snapshot November 2020

November was a massive month for global financial markets. Two of the biggest uncertainties facing the markets were resolved in ways which led global investors to become much more bullish about the outlook as we move out of 2020 and into 2021. First, the US election is now out of the way and Joe Biden has beaten Donald Trump for the White House. The markets no longer need to fear a contested election. Second, the news of successful vaccines for COVID-19 marked a sea-change in investor sentiment, even though big waves of the virus are rolling through Europe and the US. These factors, plus the prospect of further policy support, triggered a big risk-on move in financial markets.

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Economic Snapshot October 2020

A major resurgence of COVID-19 infections in the UK, Europe and US has renewed investor concerns about the path of global economic recovery. In Europe in particular, there is talk of a double-dip recession. This, plus increasing uncertainty about the US election outcome, and the chances of getting a big new fiscal package through Congress, undermined global equity markets in October.

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Economic Snapshot September 2020

September saw a break in the rally in global equity markets. Several factors contributed to this, including signs that the global recovery, while proceeding, is nevertheless slowing down. Growing concerns about prospects for fiscal stimulus in the US added to the volatility, as did reports that Japanese firm Softbank had purchased billions of dollars of equity options, driving tech stocks up on speculative positions.

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Economic Snapshot August 2020

August saw restrictions maintained in a number of countries to contain second waves of COVID-19. Progress was made in Australia and the US in reducing infection rates, but the US still has a long way to go before they really get the virus under control. Europe is in the grip of a significant second wave. The most affected countries include Spain and France, both of which now have infection rates exceeding those in their first waves.

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Economic Snapshot July 2020

July saw second waves of COVID-19 infections around the world with cases per week in a number of countries, including Australia, the US and Japan, exceeding previous peaks. Some countries have responded by reinstating national restrictions, while others, including Australia, have adopted a regional approach. Employment and consumer confidence are starting to feel the consequences of this, as are budget deficits which will expand even further as more support to firms and households is required to mitigate the impact on labour markets and consumer spending.

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Economic Snapshot June 2020

2019/20 was most dramatic year for financial markets since the GFC. The first half of the year was dominated by concerns of global recession as slower growth in China spilled over into the rest of the world. Central banks cut cash rates even further, which encouraged equity markets to rally into December. The ongoing popularity of tech stocks helped underpin the rally. However, equity market valuations closed 2019 in expensive territory.

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Economic Snapshot May 2020

Equity markets pushed higher in May, taking valuations to very expensive levels, as markets took an almost exclusively optimistic view of declining infection rates, reports of progress towards a vaccine and the benefits of economies re-opening. In addition, significant stimulus measures announced in previous months began to take effect, giving many investors’ confidence that government policy would provide a safety net against any further falls in markets.

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Economic Snapshot April 2020

Markets embraced a risk-on mood in April with a strong rally in equities as investors welcomed declining virus infections and reports of possible medical treatments. Support from governments and central banks also helped. However, as the month went on, the economic data and corporate reporting painted a bleaker picture of just how much damage has been done to the world economy. Markets have priced in a lot of good news and now they are starting to see the bad news. Equity markets are looking expensive again after April’s rally, which does not leave much room for them to absorb bad news.

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Economic Snapshot February 2020

The first three weeks of February saw further good performance by global equity markets. The news from China about Covid-19 seemed to be getting better and the latest economic data was still quite positive. However, all this changed very quickly from 21 February when markets suddenly became alarmed by reports of the virus spreading to a number of countries around the world, including Italy, Iran, South Korea and the US.

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Economic Snapshot January 2020

January was a dramatic month for the world economy and financial markets, starting with hostilities between the US and Iran and ending with fears about the new coronavirus (2019- nCoV) from China. Here in Australia, we had the extra difficulties from the terrible bushfires. Despite all this, the Australian equity market had a great month, more than making up for a desultory December and outperforming global counterparts. The weaker $A and stronger performance from bonds helped our equity market, though more so in the non-resource sectors.

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